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AXPZ20 KNHC 271605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH INDUCED SEAS OF 14-22 FT ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND AND SW OF THE GULF TO ABOUT 12N98W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS BY EARLY ON SAT. A LARGE SWATH OF N- NE 20-30 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W TO 11N101W FRI...AND WITHIN WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N97W TO 11N100W ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 10-16 FT...SUBSIDING TO 9-12 FT ON SAT. SINCE THIS EVENT WILL ENDURE A RATHER LONG DURATION...EXPECT SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL TO REACH NEAR 112W FROM 02N-14N BETWEEN 92W-112W BY EARLY SAT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 08N93W. ITCZ FROM 08N93W TO 08N105W TO 09.5N116W TO 11N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W- 89W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 138W.


...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT... GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL EXCEPT S OF 19N WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD ARE NOTED.

SURFACE... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS ALONG A POSITION FROM 32N129W TO 18N140W. A SECOND COLD FRONT...SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING...JUST NW OF THE AREA WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT LATER TODAY. THE MERGED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS REACHING A POSITION FROM 32N135W TO 26N140W TONIGHT...AND AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 32N133W TO 25N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE ARE FORECAST BE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN NW SWELL.

A STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH PRES JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N125W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 24N140W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N128W TO 10N130W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS FROM RESIDUAL MIXED NE AND NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 18N W OF TROUGH TO 130W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OTHER GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUES MAINLY BETWEEN 27N TO 29N WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS LATE TODAY.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THESE GAP WIND REGIONS. LATEST ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS BOTH GULFS. EXPECT SEAS TO 8-10 FT WITH THESE EVENTS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THROUGH 48 HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$ AGUIRRE

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