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AXPZ20 KNHC 062217
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AS A 1032 MB HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE FROM NE MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS CONTINUES TO FORCE GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND ABOUT 100 NM. A REINFORCING COLDFRONT IS SHIFTING SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL ACT TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...REACHING 45-55 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SEAS JUST DOWNWIND WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 20 FT DURING THIS TIME. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE SUN NIGHT...THEN REMAIN 30-40 KT SEVERAL MORE DAYS INTO MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER E MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST STORM CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MON NIGHT. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION AND MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE CURRENT PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON AND AREA SPILLING THROUGH GAPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS BAYS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS...FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO TEHUANTEPEC. A LARGE PLUME OF 20-30 KT NE WINDS EXTENDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS TO NEAR 07.5N94W...WHERE LATE MORNINGALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INCREASE THE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO 35 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF NICOYA SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS PROLONGED STRONG WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 90W-110W THIS WEEKEND.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N86W TO 03N101W TO 05N112W TO 02N121W TO05N129W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 104W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ W OF 128W.


...DISCUSSION... A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON W OF 120W...FROM A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 36N127W EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N105W...AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 20-30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA....WHERE SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 6-9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W...WITH HIGHEST WINDS CENTERED NEAR 07N 135W. THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE SUPPORTING 9-14 FT SEAS IN THE AREA FROM 06N-14N W OF 120W. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT FROM 08N-14N W OF 120W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 140W EARLY MON WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA SUN. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 12-15 FT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR NW PORTION MON.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT NEAR 06N81W BY MON AFTERNOON. AREA OF WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME.

$$ STRIPLING

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