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AXPZ20 KNHC 241528
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIVING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUN MORNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. THE WINDSAT PASS FROM 2358 UTC THU SHOWED A CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WIND AFTER PASSING S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH A BROAD CENTER NEAR 13N93W. AS THE WIND INTENSIFIES...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 11N89W TO 09N100W TO 12N119W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 82W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 06N E OF 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 100W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 133W AS WELL AS W OF 136W.


...DISCUSSION... A RELATIVELY WEAK 1016 MB SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N130W AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1015 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 12N114W TO 15N112W. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 29N140W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BE USHERED SOUTHEASTWARD...HOWEVER. SEAS TO 11 FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND NEAR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N140W AND WILL BUILD TO 13 FT OVER THE WEEKEND.

A LINGERING AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS MIXED WITH CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...BRINGING SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA S OF 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 128W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH SAT...WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS SHIFTING EAST COVERING THE WATERS S OF 07N BETWEEN 91W AND 110W BEFORE MERGING WITH THE PLUME OF GAP WIND SWELL OCCURRING S IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF PANAMA. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE LIES OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND THE MAINLAND. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 MILLIMETERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE HERE OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$ SCHAUER

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