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AXPZ20 KNHC 011508
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N. THERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE INTERACTING.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 96/97W FROM 10N INTO THE FAR W GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY HELP FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 15.5N96W TO 16N104W TO 11N116W TO 09N134W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N139W. ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 121W TO 101W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE. THE STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 01N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND S OF 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W BY WED MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ AL

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