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AXPZ20 KNHC 250912
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT YET PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS BEGUN TO SHOW VERY WEAK S TO W WINDS S OF THE ITCZ E OF 100W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W TO 09N87W TO 04N127W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED OVER SE PORTIONS OF GULF OF PANAMA FROM 08.5N79W EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO COLOMBIA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 210 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 84W AND 105W.


...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM A CYCLONIC VORTEX MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC...SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 34N127W THEN SW TO 24N144W THEN CONTINUING W AS A WEAK TUTT AXIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST E OF THIS TROUGH AND N OF 20N...AND IS APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. OVERNIGHT...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX E OF THIS RIDGE HAS SHIFTED NE ACROSS THE S TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SINALOA REGION OF MEXICO. SUFFICIENT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRESENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE TSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N112W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SINALOA AND NAYARIT STATES. THIS CONVECTION HAS SINCE MOVED INLAND AND NEARLY ENDED. SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER FEATURE...AN UPPER RIDGE RESIDES BETWEEN 90W AND 110W...WHILE THE WEAKENING TAIL OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 10N90W.

AT THE SURFACE...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW PORTIONS THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 30N142W. HIGH PRES TO THE S OF THIS FRONT HAS COLLAPSED...WHILE A 1030 MB HIGH WAS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 35N150W AND BRIDGING ACROSS THE FRONT TO NEAR 23N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 120W WITH SEAS THERE RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF THE COLLAPSED HIGH SE OF THE FRONT AND THE CURRENT RIDGE ARE PRODUCING GRADIENT INDUCED NW WINDS 20-25 KT OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH 15-20 KT NW WINDS EXTENDING S AND SE TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS ACROSS THIS REGION RUNNING 8-10 FT IN PREDOMINANTLY NW SWELL. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND INTO N PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING NW TO W WINDS 20-25 KT INTO THE OUTER WATERS N OF 28N AND ACROSS INTERIOR WATERS OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N DURING SAT AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT AND INTO TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT NW WINDS 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH MON.

A VERY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN HEMI S SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS MORNING. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS FORECAST THIS SWELL TO BEGIN REACHING THE PACIFIC COASTS FROM ECUADOR TO BAJA CALIFORNIA ANY MOMENT AND PEAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AT 6 TO 8 FT. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL AT THAT SIZE WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS AND REEFLINES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...STRONG AND WIDESPREAD RIP CURRENTS...AND COASTAL EROSION SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THIS EVENT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 100W...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION BEGINS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

$$ STRIPLING

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