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AXPZ20 KNHC 100951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT... WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA... WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.


...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W- 120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$ HUFFMAN

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