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AXPZ20 KNHC 010915
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... 1005 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N102W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. IT IS LOCATED WHERE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS HIGH FROM TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY ACCUMULATION DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE LOW BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SW MEXICO IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N92W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 15N102W TO 12N118W TO 12N135W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 117W.


...DISCUSSION... SUSTAINED FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW NEAR 15N102W IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 15N TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 7-10 FT SEAS THROUGH THU FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 118W.

LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWS 30-33 KT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE N-NW SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP S OF 30N BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM CATALINA ISLAND TO 29N124W TO 30N130W LATER THIS MORNING...THEN CONTINUE N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE WATERS AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN GULF WATERS N OF 25N.

$$ MUNDELL

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