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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011526
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING S INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON NIGHT INTO TUE. N WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ONCE THE HIGH WIND EVENT COMMENCES AROUND 0000 UTC. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 1200 UTC ON TUE WHEN THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH NEAR 12N96W. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 11-12 FT BY TUE MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIKELY PERSIST FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N88W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N88W TO 06N100W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 05N TO 07N W OF 135W.


...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EPAC REGION THROUGH 20N120W TO 09N125W. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SW MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS ANALYZED OVER WESTERN MEXICO ENTERING THE EPAC WATERS NEAR 22N105W TO 16N110W. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 18N AND NEAR 16N106W. A CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NW MEXICO BY TUE. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND MAZATLAN ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO SUN NIGHT AND MON...INCLUDING ALSO THE MARIAS ISLANDS.

A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS TO AROUND 17N. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 130W DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. TRADE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER W WATERS THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE FORECAST REGION BY WED AFTERNOON. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS S-SW WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS OF 9-14 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG 30N W OF 135W.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 1110 UTC RAPIDSCAT PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S CENTRAL AMERICA WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH TUE MORNING...WITH HIGHEST WINDS IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE SAME RAPIDSCAT SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO NEAR 03N. AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 4-6 FT WITH THESE WINDS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$ GR

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