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AXPZ20 KNHC 020946
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 15N139.5W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N128W TO 13N137W. E-SE 20-33 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY FROM 12-19N BETWEEN 137-140W WITH SEAS OF 11-25 FT. E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE FROM 11-24N BETWEEN 135-140WW WITH 8-11 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. EXPECT THE E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 13-22N W OF 138W TONIGHT WITH MIXED SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SHIFT W OF 140W ON MON EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTCMCP4/WTPA24 PHFO.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 08N ALONG 89W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA TODAY. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 06-16N ALONG 112W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 11N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WEAK 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N TODAY...AND TRACK W ON MON-TUE WHILE THE PARENT WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W TO 08N85W THEN TURNS SW TO NEAR 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W-NW TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 09N112W...THEN DIPS SW TO 06N129W THEN NW TO 08N138W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO.

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR GUILLERMO AND THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 90 NM OF 08N78W AND 11.5N101.5W...WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N91W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N102W TO 09N111W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 07N119W TO 09N140W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N127W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF BAJA THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF ONLY 15-20 KT AT SUNRISE TODAY RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W- SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF ENE 20-25 KT WINDS ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

$$ NELSON

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