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AXPZ20 KNHC 301453
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR 17N100W TO 11N101W MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO 09N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N119W TO 08N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N95W...AND ALSO A LINE FROM 09N97W TO 10N110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 180 NM BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRI AND THEN PROPAGATED OFFSHORE.


...DISCUSSION...

1006 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS POSITIONED NEAR 31N134W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW N OF 28N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

A 1025 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N160W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 40N130W AND THEN CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N126W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS. AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE THE SEAS WHICH ARE NOW 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

$$ LEWITSKY

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