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AXPZ20 KNHC 012126
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA HAS SHIFTED W OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 140.8W AT 2100 UTC SEP 01. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL AFFECTING A SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT OF JIMENA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 140 NM SE QUADRANTS. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 260 NM E SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO JIMENA WAS NOTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W. JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W WITH THE SYSTEM. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SHIFT W OF 140W THIS EVENING WHILE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF 140W BY WED. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPCP4/WTPA34 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 114.2W AT 2100 UTC...MOVING NW 320 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND INTENSIFY FURTHER TO 40 KT WED. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRI AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER WATERS WHILE MOVING FURTHER NORTH. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 09N84W TO 11N93W TO 09N100W TO 11N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 03N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.


...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N155W EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N114W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE AREA OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF JIMENA AND TD FOURTEEN-E. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS CURRENTLY FOUND S OF 01N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. BY THU SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL BE FOUND S OF 04N BETWEEN 100W AND 132W.

$$ AL

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