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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290328
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2305 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE RANGE OF 12-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM 04N TO 14N TO 124W. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TIGHT PRES RIDGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 30-35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE LATE THU EVENING. HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH FRI EVENING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N89W TO 04N100W TO 07N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W.


...DISCUSSION... NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT THU. ON FRI EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 110W WITH AXIS ALONG 126W. A 95 KT JETSTREAM IS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 100W N OF 10N.

$$ FORMOSA

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