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AXPZ20 KNHC 040311
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW IS NEAR 12N120W MOVING W NW AT 10 KT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AROUND THE LOW IS BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH MORE CURVATURE NOTED IN THE CLOUDS AS THEY COIL INTO THE CENTER. IR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PRESENT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SIMILAR CONVECTION DEPICTS AN OUTER BAND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 08N116W TO 10N117W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN GENERAL W-NW MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. IT HAS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 102W FROM 09N-17N MOVING W 16 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-11N...AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-12N. ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE QUADRANT OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW AT 16N107W IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ACTIVE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 07N92W AND EXTENDS TO 10N100W WHERE IT BRIEFLY ENDS E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. IT BEGINS AGAIN W OF THE WAVE NEAR 09N104W...AND CONTINUES TO 10N115W AND FROM 09N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-135W AND W OF 138W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N129W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 21N118W. THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N110W NWD TO A 1005 MB LOW AT 34N114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES IS ALLOWING FOR NW 15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST N OF 26N E OF 117W WITH SEAS THERE OF 5-7 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE PRESENT PRES PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT SEA STATE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW SUBSIDED WITH WINDS DOWN TO 15-20 KT MON MORNING. RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL REMAIN FROM 10.5N-11N BETWEEN 88W-90W. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADEINT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF NE TO E 20-25 KT GAP WIND FLOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AGAIN TO 15-20 KT DURING LATE MORNING OF TUE AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...AND DIMINISH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN S SWELL ARE EXPECTED FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 88W-91W AT THAT TIME.

$$ AGUIRRE

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