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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200236
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N88W 1008 MB TO 14N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N99W 1007 MB TO 11N111W TO 11N120W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO 11N131W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 126W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 117W.


...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 138W N OF 26N SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N133W TO 25N140W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON WITH SEAS REACHING 15-16 FT IN FAR NW PART TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DYING FRONT WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT. FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A FRONTAL TROUGH BY MON AFTERNOON AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TUE MORNING. AREA OF HIGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MON AND TUE AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING COMBINED SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$ MUNDELL

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