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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171008
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.8W 1000 MB AT
0900 UTC SEP 17...OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM S OF ZIHUATENEJO
MEXICO...MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM NE AND 180 NM SE QUADRANTS AND 30 NM ACROSS W SEMICIRCLE...
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
360 NM SW QUADRANTS. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW
TRACK PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE TONIGHT. CONVECTION
OCCURRING TO THE NE OF POLO WITH SCRAPE ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES
OF MEXICO BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND
ODILE. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 113.5W 995 MB AT
0900 UTC SEP 17...ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM S OF PUERTO PENASCO
MEXICO...MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 995 MB. ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N-NE AND MOVE INLAND THEN SLOW DOWN TONIGHT
INTO WED. RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
INLAND. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE...AND SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS THE STATE OF SONORA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TO 18 INCHES ACROSS
SONORA DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS N
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N76W TO 07.5N81W TO 10N90W
WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N104.5W TO
11N124W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO LOW
PRES NEAR 12.5N140W 1011 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH E OF
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N128W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 32N124W...AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 21N140W.
THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132.5W TO 27N140W.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 20-25 KT IS TO THE N OF 29N
WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT. NW SWELL IS
MAINTAINING SEAS OF 8-9 FT ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO
25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO TROUGH FROM 30N131W TO 24N140W
LATE WED AND FROM 27N130W TO 24N140W ON THU WITH SEAS EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON FRI.

LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA YESTERDAY AND HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY FADE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS STILL TO 8 FT OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA N OF 03N AND E OF 110W. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF POLO
THROUGH THU AS THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL FADES.

$$
STRIPLING

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