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AXNT20 KNHC 132347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N9W ALONG 3N12W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO OVER THE PLAIN STATES INCLUDING THE W GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND NAPLES ALONG 67N88W TO OVER TEXAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE THE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF BY EARLY SUN. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN AND TO THE W ATLC ON MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A REMNANT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W ACROSS CENTRAL JAMAICA ALONG 17N81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 80W AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEXT WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N68W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF LINE FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N58W ALONG 26N66W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FROM 32N60W THROUGH 27N65W TO NW CUBA SUN MORNING. THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE THE S PORTION WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN NIGHT AND MON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S ACROSS THE W ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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