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AXNT20 KNHC 032347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND THEN INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W CONTINUING TO 03N20W TO 03N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N26W AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 04N36W TO 04N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 11N47W TO 01N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 12W AND 33W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SW TO A BASE OVER ARIZONA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W SW TO 24N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ADVECTS INTO THE BASIN FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OFF EASTERN MEXICO WHERE WINDS COULD REACH TO 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THAT REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE E- SE THROUGH THU MORNING WHEN ITS TAIL MOVE OFF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF AT THU SUNRISE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA. MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC BY SE WINDS ALONG WITH AIR LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS. GOES LIGHTING DENSITY DATA SHOW ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG NE CUBA AND ACROSS MOST OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES COVERS THE BASIN AS A WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN THU NEAR SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA. MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC BY SE WINDS ALONG WITH AIR LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...EARLY ON THU A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARE GOING TO AFFECT THE ISLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES E-SE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC BY SE FLOW ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF ANDROS ISLAND W OF 74W. THREE SURFACE TROUGHS PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...NONE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N54W TO 23N60W...THE SECOND THROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N43W TO 26N44W AND THE THIRD EXTENDS FROM 23N35W TO 19N34W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO SW N ATLC WATERS BY EARLY THU MORNING AND WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALIZED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE ATLC HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RAMOS

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