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AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N54W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N67W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN 60W-73W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 07N46W TO 07N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N87W. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO TRUE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N89W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF 80W SHIFTS MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 65W OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THAT THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N. EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE 66W...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS EVENING DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL MID- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE PRIME IMPACT ACROSS THE BASIN REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...WITH EVEN NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY... HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITHIN NW FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N70W. LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLOW TO MOVE...IT IS LIKELY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR TUESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 35N74W TO 31N78W TO 27N80W. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 64W-71W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WESTERN CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N64W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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