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AXNT20 KNHC 021756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 00N14W TO 02S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S AND 50 NM N OF THE ITCZ. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 04N BETWEEN 14W AND 21W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE NW GULF FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT 27N95W AND SOUTHWARD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. DENSE FOG IS NOTED ALONG AND NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA NEAR 29N89W. FOG IS ALSO NOTED ALONG AND N OF THIS STATIONARY FRONT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE NORTH OF THIS STATIONARY FRONT. EASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BOTH STATIONARY FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN TACT. SE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVELS ARE PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N84W TO 16N61W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE EAST WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE ISLAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT OFF THE US EAST COAST TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W. FOG IS OVER FL AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST ALONG AND N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N22W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER AND EAST TO NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BASIN S OF 32N. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 30N60W TO 27N70W BEFORE DISSIPATING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLC BY WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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