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AXNT20 KNHC 311159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 23.5W AT 31/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM W OF RABIL IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 55 NM SE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N25W TO 17N22W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 13N23W TO 16N21W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N55W ALONG 16N57W TO 10N57W MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W AND 210 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 73W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-75W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE FRED NEAR 12N28W ALONG 8N36W TO 9N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 38W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N23W TO 7N30W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO AN UPPER LOW OVER S/CENTRAL TEXAS COVERING THE NW GULF AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N W OF 94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS OVER SE FLORIDA ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SE GULF. THIS IS CREATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE ALONG 27N84W TO NEAR 25N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF LINE FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N87W INCLUDING THE W STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT W ACROSS THE E GULF THROUGH WED REACHING TO ALONG 86W BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND W CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO INLAND NEAR N BELIZE AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 83W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ATLC DIPS SW OVER PUERTO RICO INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 15N67W TO 16N71W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 74W-84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT AND WED.


...HISPANIOLA... THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO OVER THE ISLAND BETWEEN 70W-75W. THIS MOISTURE AND ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS MORE MOISTURE TUE NIGHT AND THE WAVE ON WED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N75W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW OVER SE FLORIDA AND W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF 75W TO OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N58W TO 29N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 55W-58W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 26N54W 21N60W TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N45W 26N60W 25N70W TO 30N77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31N68W...A SECOND 1021 HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N56W... AND A 1018 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 28N25W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY INTO N WATERS WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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