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000
AXNT20 KNHC 301032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 01N14W TO 03S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 16W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB CENTERED FROM N FL NEAR 30N82W TO THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS OF THE SE US NEAR 21N76W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF E OF 86W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 66W FROM AROUND 27N TO 40N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS S OVER THE SW N ATLC TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W TO 19N77W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES W OF 19N77 TO NEAR 18N83W. E TO NE WINDS OF 25 KT ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF/YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE ISLAND...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS TO 25N65W TO 21N71W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECONDARY TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N61W TO 26N65W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N42W TO 18N40W AND IS A SURFACE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE US COAST TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 30N ON TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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