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AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 22N17W TO 13N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 19N18W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-21N MAINLY E OF 17W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N39W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE IS MAINLY INDUCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH...WHICH IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N51W TO 10N53W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS WAVE ALSO ASIDE FROM THE ONE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N77W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A 1008 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N81W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 20N SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF EASTERN CUBA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE STRONGEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS W OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N22W TO 10N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N46W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 24W-43W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 47W-55W WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN W OF 53W BETWEEN 10N-13N.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 27N97W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 87W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 23N96W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF EASTERN CUBA IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 24N69W AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 15N78W WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS LOCATED ACROSS SE PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N75W. THE INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W AND FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC.


...HISPANIOLA...

TWO CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE STRONGEST ONE IS LOCATED OVER NW HAITI FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 72W- 74W. THE OTHER ONE IS OVER S DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W... BETWEEN 17N-19N. ASIDE FROM THAT...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 29N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N54W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N69W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N36W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.



FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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