AXNT20 KNHC 280005

805 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.5N 74.7W at 27/2100 UTC, or about 378 NM SE of Charleston South Carolina moving WNW at 11 KT. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 MB. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 KT with gusts to 40 KT. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Saturday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina. Presently scattered moderate convection is from 28N-31N between 73W-76W. Please see the latest intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO header MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC, and the full forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO header MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is over the far eastern tropical Atlantic extending from 15N19W to 05N20W moving west at 15 kt. The wave has a well-defined 700 mb trough axis as seen in the GFS analysis, and rawindsondes over West Africa. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb, according to CIRA layer precipitable water. Enhanced Meteosat imagery shows dust in the northern wave environment, thus limiting the convection to scattered moderate from 5N-8N between 19W-22W.

A tropical wave is over the west tropical Atlantic extending from 13N55W to 05N54W, moving west at 20-25 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave has become difficult to track and is weakly apparent in the SUNY-Albany tropical wave diagnostics at 700 mb. No deep convection is present currently associated with the wave.

A tropical wave is located in the eastern Caribbean extending from 16N68W to 08N68W, moving west at 20-25 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the axis.


The Monsoon Trough extends across the tropical Atlantic starting near 09N14W to 06N21W. The ITCZ begins near 06N21W and continues to 05N43W. An area of scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over western Africa due to the monsoon trough from 09N- 14N between 04W-16W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of South America from 2N-7N between 48W-53W due to the ITCZ.



An outflow boundary is over western Louisiana and eastern Texas. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 29N-34N between 92W-97W. Further south, clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection is along the coast of Mexico from 18N-26N between 96W-100W. Surface ridging is over the NE Gulf of Mexico, while a 1000 mb low is centered over central Mexico near 25N123W. The surface pressure gradient tightens over the western Gulf, thus 20-25 kt southerly winds are over the NW Gulf. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt SE winds. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central and south Florida. Fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, the base of a trough is over Texas and the far NW Gulf. Elsewhere, an upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near 26N78W. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of convection over South Florida.


An upper-level trough extending from a low anchored near the central Bahamas extends into the western Caribbean with water vapor imagery showing very dry conditions aloft. Over the eastern basin, a tropical wave extends along 65W. Moisture in this region of the basin along with a diffluent environment aloft support scattered to isolated showers mainly E of 70W. Similar weather conditions are across Hispaniola and adjacent waters and across eastern Cuba E of 77W. The Northeast Pacific's Monsoon Trough continues to induce showers and isolated


An upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean is helping to induce scattered moderate convection over Haiti. The combination of the upper trough, abundant moisture, and the approaching easterly wave currently near the Windward Islands may produced scattered to numerous moderate convection with isolated to scattered deep convection over Hispaniola during the next two days.


See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Two. Over the central Atlantic a 1023 mb high is centered near 28N49W. A weak 1019 low is centered near 27N26W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the center. Another weak 1017 mb low is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 27N28W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the center. Of note in the upper levels, upper level difluence se of the N Bahamas upper level low is producing scattered moderate convection n of Hispaniola from 20N-27N between 64W-72W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa