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AXNT20 KNHC 251203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO 29N70W TO 27N73W TO 23N79W. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 64W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS OR SO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN TWO OTHER AREAS BEGINNING AT 36 HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 80W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 9N14W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 2N26W AND 2N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 5N41W 14N29W BEYOND 19N16W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KATP... AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 1 MILE TO 2 MILES AND FOG...AT NEW IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE IN LOUISIANA...1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS...AND 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AT GALLIANO IN LOUISIANA...2 MILES OR LESS IN FOG AT PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT WITH A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N78W 19N83W 15N84W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N72W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.


...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. SOME FOG MAY BE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO- SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W... ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N TO 35N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 69W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 28N54W...TO 19N69W AND THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 31N40W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 31N40W TO 24N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N30W TO 22N36W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-24N47W COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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