413
AXNT20 KNHC 260545
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 26 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, to
03N20W, 01N25W, through the Equator along 30W, to 01S37W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 06N southward between the
ITCZ and 32W, and from 03N southward between 44W and the coast of
South America. Scattered to numerous strong is from 01N southward
from 03W eastward, and from 01N southward between 14W and 16W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.
A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 29N85W.
Moderate seas are from 90W westward. Slight seas are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are
within 180 nm of the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and from
21N to 28N between 93W and 97W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic
winds are in the rest of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico.
Gentle winds are within 180 nm of the coast from Florida to
Mississippi, in the eastern half of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh
NE to E winds are elsewhere in the eastern half of the area.
A ridge across the Gulf region is allowing for gentle to moderate
E to SE winds across the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh SE
winds over the western Gulf. The pressure gradient will tighten
over the Gulf beginning tonight resulting in increasing east to
southeast fresh to strong winds over just about the entire basin
through Sun night. Seas will build to 10 ft in the NW Gulf on Sun.
Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough is along 22N67W in the Atlantic Ocean, through
the easternmost parts of the Dominican Republic, to 16N70W in the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is within 480 nm on either side of the line that runs from 20N69W
to the coast of Panama near 09N82W. It is possible that continual
amounts of rain may help to increase the chances for flash
flooding in inland areas, especially in hilly terrain and low-
lying areas. Please, refer to bulletins from your local weather
service offices for more details about this event.
A surface trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, beyond 07N80W in the
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in
Colombia and Venezuela from 06N to 10N between 71W and 78W.
Rough seas are from 10N to 12N between 75W and 78W, off the coasts
of Colombia and Panama. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 16N
southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate seas are from 16N
southward between 67W and 70W, and elsewhere from 66W eastward.
Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 180 nm of the coast of
South America between 66W and 78W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
cover much of the rest of the area.
High pressure north of the Greater Antilles is sustaining fresh
to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, and
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, including the Windward Passage.
By late Fri, strengthening of the high pressure will also force
fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba,
Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through early next
week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is along 31N62W 22N67W, through the easternmost
parts of the Dominican Republic, to 16N70W in the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within
390 nm to the east of the trough, and within 270 nm to the west
of the trough, in the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh NE winds are 21N to
27N between the surface trough and the SE Bahamas.
A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 20N38W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are
from 18N to 23N between 33W and 41W. Moderate to rough seas have
been from 18N northward between 30W and 50W. Moderate seas have
been in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward from 45W
eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
27N31W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 20N to 30N between
25W and 35W.
Fresh to strong NE winds are to the north of 19N48W 21N40W
25N30W 22N17W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 25N southward
between 45W and 60W. Moderate SE winds are from 25N northward
between 50W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean.
A cold front that is presently northwest of the area will merge
with a frontal trough that extends from 31N61W to eastern
Dominican Republic late on Fri. The cold front will reach from
near 31N58W to 26N65W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from
near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken
into a trough over the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon
night. North swell behind the front will build seas to 8 to 11 ft
over most of the area northeast of the Bahamas by Sun.
Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result
in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front from
late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, these winds are expected to be
at mainly fresh speeds south of 29N and west of 60W. At that time,
fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected over the far
northeast forecast waters along with building seas. Rather
tranquil conditions are expected Tue and Tue night as high
pressure becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore waters,
with the induced gradient supporting fresh to locally strong
northeast to east winds over the southern waters.
$$
mt/ja
