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AXNT20 KNHC 061042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 07N18W TO 04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 02N26W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N- 08N BETWEEN 10W-16W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 16W- 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 33W- 51W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. WEST OF THE AXIS...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS BASIN PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GULF HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW PREVAILS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGHING AND AREAS N OF 17N E OF 82W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. WHILE MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE BASIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE LINGERING ACTIVITY PROVIDES THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND A POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF 80W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W THIS MORNING. RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUOYS...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 31N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM 21N-32N W OF 66W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 38N27W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N26W SW TO 25N35W TO 23N45W TO 24N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N15W TO 19N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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