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AXNT20 KNHC 021029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN NO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. ITS AXIS IS NEAR 62W AND MOVES W AT 20 KT WITHIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NE BASIN GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N65W AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS NEAR 89W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 15N TO 18N W OF 83W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 12N30W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO 09N53W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 18N E OF 22W AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS HAS AN AXIS EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS THE N-NW GULF. A TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW W-SW TO 27N90W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. WITH THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NE BASIN...DIFFLUENCE IS BEING GENERATED. THE WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NE BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 25N TO 29N E OF 88W. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85.5W WHERE WINDS ARE FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT. SEAS IN THIS REGION OF STRONGEST WINDS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS WHILE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO BELIZE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ON HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING GENERATED BY THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE BASIN AS INDICATED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTING NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE FAR E BASIN AND ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA MONDAY NIGHT.


...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W AND FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB NEAR 30N56W. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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