AXNT20 KNHC 240006
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 14.2N 35.8W at 23/2100 UTC
or about 665 nm west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands,
moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to
65 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
12N-16N between 33W-38W. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/
Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for
A tropical wave is located at about 160 nm east of the Leeward
Islands with axis from 22N60W to a 1009 mb low near 17N58W to
11N56W, moving west-northwest at 15-20 kt. Moisture continues to
increase in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 12N-23N between 54W-62W.
Large-scale conditions could become more conducive for tropical
development later this week while the system moves near
Hispaniola and then the southeastern and central Bahamas.
Interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to
the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Despite
of the tropical development, gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over these
areas. This system has a medium chance for tropical formation
within the next 48 hours.
The northern portion of a tropical wave extends across the Bay
of Campeche and southern Mexico with axis from 21N95W to 10N96W,
moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb
troughing. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-24N between
The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W to 12N28W. The ITCZ begins near 07N43W and
continues to 06N58W. Other than convection associated with T.S.
Gaston and the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is
from 07N-12N between 22W-25W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging extends over the northern Gulf of Mexico
anchored by a 1021 mb high over N Mississippi near 34N90W. This
ridge supports gentle winds over the northern Gulf, and mainly
moderate east to southeasterly winds over the remainder of the
Gulf. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
the NE Gulf and Florida. Isolated moderate convection is over
the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida. A tropical wave extends
across the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico S of 21N95W, with
scattered moderate convection from 15N-24N between 95W-99W.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west
with convection. Also expect continued convection over the E
Gulf and Florida.
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and lower pressures over Colombia supports fresh breeze
winds from 11N-16N between 69W-82W. Moderate trade winds prevail
elsewhere over the Caribbean basin. Scattered moderate
convection is over the N Colombia, the SW Caribbean, Panama, and
Costa Rica due to the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate
convection is over Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. A tropical
wave and associated low just east of the Leeward Islands will
produce abundant convection. Environmental conditions could
become conducive for tropical development of this system later
this week. Please see the Special Features section above for
Isolated moderate convection is inland over Hispaniola due to
maximum heating. More tropical moisture is forecast to advect
over the island Wednesday.
The main features of interest in the basin continue to be
Tropical Storm Gaston, and the tropical wave just east of the
Leeward islands. Islated moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic and the N Bahamas, W of 70W. The remnant 1014 mb low of
Fiona is centered near 27N65W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 25N-31N between 58W-68W. The remainder of the area is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by two high pressure
centers located just N of our area of discussion.
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