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AXNT20 KNHC 191730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 39.5N 38.3W OR ABOUT 450 NM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD IS VERY LIMITED TO AN AREA S OF 39N BETWEEN 32W-36W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N20W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N76W TO 25N76W. THE WAVE IS MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 05-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 10N45W. THIS WAVE AXIS WAS REPOSITIONED AS THE INVERTED V SATELLITE SIGNATURE BECAME MORE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTICED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS 26N80W...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO A FEW SHOWERS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 66W- 68W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N77W TO 25N77W TO 26N77W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N79W TO 25N79W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 26N BETWEEN 76W-77W AND BETWEEN 79W-80W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN US AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SW LOUISIANA. THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 83W N OF 27N. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE GULF AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING E OF PANAMA NEAR 11N77W. THESE SYSTEMS ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER EASTERN CUBA AND W HISPANIOLA. DESPITE THIS...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG 26N BETWEEN 82W-82W IS VISIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 57W-66W AS THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR DECREASES OVER THIS AREA. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ACROSS CUBA ON SATURDAY.


...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W. TO THE SE OF THIS TROUGH...A BROAD UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE WITH CENTERED NEAR 33N41W IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 80W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 26N81W IN THE W GULF TO 27N81W IN THE ATLC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM E LOUSIANA AND CONNECTS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLC NEAR 41N52W. FOR CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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