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AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 26N91W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND IS W OF 90W WHILE MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CUBA SW TO 18N83W. WITH NO SUPPORT ALOFT...A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 19N...BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 78W. WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO GALE- FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL VANISH THU MORNING WHILE THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT STALLS BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS VANISH LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N66W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 30N61W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. LATER THIS MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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