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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
815 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the W coast of Africa extending from 16N18W to 06N18W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave has a distinct moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave location is in conjuction with a 700 mb trough. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral vertical wind shear. It has ,however,Saharan dry air and dust N and W of the wave environment. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis along the coast of W Africa from 11N-16N between 15W-19W.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 15N29W to 02N30W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave has a low amplitude surface reflection with moisture confined mostly along the monsoon trough S of 12N. There is a 700 mb trough S of 12N. The wave is in a region of favorable vertical wind shear, however, it continues to be severely affected by Saharan dry air dust N of 12N. Scattered showers are from 03N-10N between 28W-33W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 22N44W to 17N42W to 11N42W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave has a distinct moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave location is in conjuction with a large high amplitude 700 mb trough. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral vertical wind shear. Scattered showers are noted from 15N-23N between 41W-45W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 18N54W to 07N56W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave has a low amplitude surface reflection. The wave has a distinct moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery S of 14N. The wave is under a large 700 mb trough. The wave is in a region of unfavorable to neutral vertical wind shear. Scattered showers are from 11N-14N between 53W-60W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N16W to 07N30W to 07N39W. The ITCZ begins near 07N39W and continues to 06N45W to 07N46W to 10N53W. Besides the convection mentionedin the tropical wave section, scattered showers are from within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough, and within 240 nm S of the monsoon trough.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf waters with gentle to light variable winds E of 91W and moderate easterly to southeasterly flow over the W Gulf. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the SW Gulf S of 23N. Radar imagery shows isolated showers remaining over Florida, and the NE Gulf N of 29N. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Gulf near 25N92W. Upper level moisture covers most of the Gulf. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Most of the Caribbean E of 80W is under dry air subsidence and unfavorable vertical wind shear, which is supporting fair weather at the time. Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula have seperate upper level diffluence areas producing convection. In the SW basin, the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 11N W of 80W.


...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are presently over Hispaniola. Upper level dry air and subsidence prevails over the island. Expect convection to advect over the Dominican Republic Tue evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level divergence between an upper level high centered along the Georgia coast and the SW periphery of a broad upper level high centered near 34N54W support scattered heavy showers and tstms in the SW basin W of 70W. In the tropical Atlc, four waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 31N58W, and a 1031 mb high over the Azores near 38N27W. No major changes expected through next couple of days.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa

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