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000
AXNT20 KNHC 242346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis extending from 13N35W to 03N37W, moving westward at around 20 kt. This wave is embedded in a broad 700 mb trough with TPW data indicating a surge of moisture. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis extending from 12N45W to 03N47W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is at the leading edge of a surge of low to mid level moisture, and has had a notable cyclonic curvature in satellite imagery the past two days. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from the south central Caribbean to S America with an axis from 15N73W to Colombia near 04N73W. This wave has been trackable utilizing infrared satellite convection patterns over S America the past two days. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave over the west Caribbean with an axis extending from 18N84W to 10N85W, moving westward at 10 kt. This wave has been slowing its forward progression the past couple of days, and is expected to become disrupted over central America through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are S of 13N, west of 80W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 09N13W and continues to 05N20W to 05N25W. The ITCZ begins near 05N25W and extends to 07N35W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N37W to 07N46W, then resumes again west of another tropical wave near 06N48W to South America near 05N53W. Aside from the showers associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 04N-12N between 07W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 18W-22W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N84W to Tampico Mexico near 21N97W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N83W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W. Patches of scattered moderate convection is E of the cold front to 80W, to include Florida. Portions of S Florida are reporting severe weather. 15-20 kt SW winds are W of the front with mostly fair weather. 15-25 kt S winds are E of the front. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 88W. Upper level diffluence is over the E Gulf, E of the trough axis, enhancing convection. Strong subsidence is over Texas and the NW Gulf. The cold front will move across north Florida tonight and reach from central Florida to the southeast Gulf Thursday morning. The pre- frontal trough will continue east of the front supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms well ahead of the front through tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Pre-frontal scattered moderate to strong convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula. A pair of tropical waves are over the Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica associated with the monsoon trough. Expect the tropical wave to move W over the next 24 hours. Also expect pre- frontal showers and thunderstorms to enter the NW Caribbean tonight and linger through Thursday.


...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air and high pressure are supporting tranquil conditions over the area today. Expect this pattern to continue through at least Thursday.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Pre-frontal scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W Atlantic, off the coast of Jacksonville Florida, N of 28N and W of 78W. A 1026 mb high is located over the central Atlantic near 33N47W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N27W to 27N37W to 22N44W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1021 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 26N27W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough reaches the W Atlantic enhancing convection. Another upper level trough is over the E Atlantic supporting the E Atlantic front. Expect in 24 hours for the W Atlantic cold front to extend from 31N75W to S Florida with convection. Also expect in 24 hours for the E Atlantic cold front to extend from 31N19W to 27N28W with showers.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa

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