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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ is along 02N21W to the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 42W, to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 05N to 08N between 10W and 12W near Liberia and Sierra Leone. Scattered strong from the Equator southward between 44W and 49W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 04N at the Prime Meridian, to 05N15W 05N30W 04N43W 04N51W.


...DISCUSSION...


...FROM THE SE U.S.A., ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from a South Carolina cyclonic circulation center, across Florida and the Bahamas and Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 15N80W. Upper level westerly wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 80W westward. A cold front extends from a 1001 mb South Carolina low pressure center, through 32N78W, between the NW Bahamas and SE Florida, across NW Cuba, across the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N northward, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. A surface trough extends from a 1000 mb low pressure center that is near 32N76W, curving through 30N75W, to the Bahamas near 24N75W, to Cuba near 21N79W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 23N to 28N between 68W and 70W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northward from 64W westward.

A 1012 mb high pressure center is near 26N95W.


...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KHQI and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Brownsville and Port Isabelle. LOUSIANA. VFR. MISSISSIPPI: VFR. ALABAMA: IFR and heavy rain in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: VFR.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is accompanying a trough that is moving across Cuba. The cyclonic wind flow is from 17N northward from Hispaniola westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. Upper level NW wind flow covers the rest of the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N northward between 67W and Jamaica.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.05 in Guadeloupe.


...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow is moving across the island. Hispaniola is on the eastern side of a trough that extends from a South Carolina cyclonic circulation center to 19N75W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. earlier cumulonimbus clouds have disappeared. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a trough will be just to the west of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. The trough will move across Hispaniola, and to the east of Hispaniola. NW wind flow will continue for the rest of the forecast period, from 12 hours to 18 hours into the overall 48-hour forecast period, until the end of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across Hispaniola for the first 18 hours to 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Broad anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic circulation center, that is in the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea, is forecast to move toward Hispaniola at the end of day one. S-to-SW wind flow will cover the first half of day two. Broad anticyclonic wind flow will span the area at the beginning of the second half of day two. SE wind flow eventually will cross Hispaniola during the last 6 hours to 12 hours of the forecast period.


...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 16N northward from 40W eastward, and from 10N northward between 40W and 60W. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 32N34W. Surface cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between Africa and 50W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 29N to 32N between 20W and 24W. Isolated moderate from 24N northward between 24W and 33W. Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 60W.

A surface 1021 mb high pressure center is near 30N60W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 50W and 70W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MT

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