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AXNT20 KNHC 290605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 04N18W AND 04N26W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N13W 03N42W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 04W AND 07W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 05N23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 07W AND 14W...AND FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THAT WAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 89W...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KGRY...KGRY...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...

IFR CONDITIONS...KVQT

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG....KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK... KGUL...KVBS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS FROM SUGAR LAND TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE WESTERN HALF...VFR/NO CEILINGS IN THE EASTERN HALF. MVFR IN GULF SHORES AND EVERGREEN. FLORIDA... LIFR IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN MARIANNA. IFR IN APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE. LIFR IN PERRY.


...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N69W TO 19N70W AT THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...LIGHT RAIN AT 29/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000 FEET. A CLOUD CEILING AT 30000 FEET...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...RAIN AND THUNDER. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 29/0000 UTC. PUNTA CANA...THUNDER...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800 FEET...MVFR. SANTIAGO...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN. PUERTO PLATA... A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800 FEET...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS OR SO. A TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N31W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N31W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 33N30W AND 31N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N26W TO 26N27W 20N35W 19N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N58W 24N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 24N69W TO 19N70W AT THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W 28N71W 26N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N19W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... TO 12N37W AND 12N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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