AXNT20 KNHC 210600

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC.


At 21/0300 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 19.2N 67.9W or about 45 nm NE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, Category 2. Numerous strong convection is within 105 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. The core of Hurricane Maria will continue to move away from Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic early Thursday. Maria should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 21/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 135 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.5N 68.2W, moving east-northeast at 5 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from 40N to 43N between 68W and 74W. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 20N37W to 06N37W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear and is in an environment of moderate moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW imagery. However, some Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to the west environment of the wave is evident in enhanced IR imagery and CIRA LPW imagery. Upper level diffluence support scattered moderate convection from 08N to 17N between 30W and 40W.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 12N30W to 09N43W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N56W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is occurring scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring off of the coast of Africa from 05N to 11N E of 20W.



Surface low pressure dominate the Gulf SW waters and the Yucatan Peninsula where a trough extends from 21N88W to southern Guatemala. Scatterometer data show fresh winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula coast associated with this surface trough. In the SE basin, a 1014 mb low pressure is located near 25N85W, which is forecast to dissipate during the next couple of hours. Otherwise, a surface ridge over the SE CONUS extends to the NE Gulf where it is anchored by a 1017 mb high near 29N87W. An upper level ridge over the basin and dry air subsidence support fair weather basin- wide. Winds are weak and easterly across much of the Gulf tonight. Expect little change over the next 48 hours.


The core of Category 2 Hurricane Maria continues to gradually move away from Puerto Rico, however tropical storm conditions prevail across the western half of the Island along with heavy showers that will continue to generate flash floods possibly through Friday. Similar conditions are being experienced by the Dominican Republic as the eye of Maria is moving across NE adjacent waters. See the special features section for further details. Strong winds and high seas associated with Maria prevail in the NE Caribbean mainly N of 17N. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica through Colombia supporting isolated showers and tstms in the SW Caribbean S of 15N W of 79W. Winds and seas associated with Maria will gradually diminish through early Friday as the cyclone moves farther NW over the SW N Atlc waters.


A hurricane warning prevails for the northern Dominican Republic while a tropical storm warning is along the southern region. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the entire island to be under rainbands over the the next two days.


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1010 mb low - the remnants of Lee - is located near 18N47W. No significant deep convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a low chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 30N45W to 23N48W to the remnants of Lee, which is being supported by an upper-level trough. Scattered showers and tstms are observed from 22N to 31N between 40W and 49W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Ramos