AXNT20 KNHC 191711

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1211 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC.


Strong high pressure building behind a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will support frequent wind gusts to gale force over a small area N of 26N W of 94W into the early afternoon. Sustained winds to gale force are expected S of 25N behind the front until mid Monday morning. Wave heights of 8 to 13 ft are expected associated with these winds. See the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N20W to 08N40W to the South American coast near 07N59W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 10W and 40W.



A cold front extends from 30N83W to 26N90W to 21N98W. Gale force northerly winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft are occurring NW of the front over a portion of the western Gulf. Please refer to the special features section for more details. Fresh to strong northerly winds are elsewhere NW of the front. Moderate winds are occurring S of the front. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of either side of the front. Over the next 24 hours the front will move quickly across the remainder of the Gulf basin. Gale force winds will continue S of 25N NW of the front until mid Monday morning. Winds will decrease to below 20 kt over the remainder of the Gulf by late Monday morning.


A 1009 mb low is centered near 14N72W. One surface trough extends from 17N76W to the low center. A second surface trough extends from the low to 12N75W. This system is interacting with an upper trough to its west to support a cluster of moderate to strong convection from 14N to 18N between 66W and 72W. The eastern portion of this convection is also being supported by a surface trough that extends from the Atlantic to Puerto Rico, to near 17N68W. Mainly moderate winds are occurring over the Caribbean basin, except for light to gentle winds S of 15n between 72W and 80W. Over the next 24 hours the low will drift NE and weaken. Convection will continue between the low and the NE Caribbean.


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist over the southern and western portion of the island through Monday, as low pressure and a surface trough persist south of the region.


A cold front is exiting the coast of N Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds and scattered showers are within 60 nm SE of the front. Fresh to strong NW winds are NW of the front. A 1020 mb high centered near 34N59W dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic waters W of 65W. A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N38W to 27N43W where it transitions to a stationary front that extends to 21N58W. A surface trough then extends from 21N58W to Puerto Rico. A broad area of cloud cover and showers are within 60 NM SE and 300 nm NW of the front E of 51W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm of either side of the front and trough W of 51W. High pressure centered near 39N17W dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours the cold front will sweep SE and reach from 31N67W to the Florida Straits by mid Monday morning. The front over the central Atlantic will begin to dissipate.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Latto