Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis just off the Africa coast along 17W from 10N to 20N and is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is located up to three degrees either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 02N to 11N and is moving west at 15 kt. Visible satellite imagery shows a Saharan dry air layer and dust in the vicinity of the wave. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located within 2 to 3 degrees either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave has its axis from 14N53W to 05N56W and is moving west at 15 kt. The wave is easily identifiable on visible satellite imagery with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly west of the wave axis from 08N to 13N between 55W and 61W.

A tropical wave is located over the west central Caribbean with the axis along 78W from 09N to 20N and is moving west at 15 kt. This wave is also evident in visible satellite imagery with scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 14N west of 80W into Central America and from 15N to 19N between 75W and 82W.

A tropical wave is located over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America with the axis along 89W from 10N to 22N and moving west at about 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed mainly over Belize.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 21N17W southwest to near 09N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is located from 06N34W to 10N50W. Isolated moderate convection is located up to 180 nm either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Difluent flow aloft over the western half of the gulf is supporting scattered shower and thunderstorm development north of 24N west of 90W. A 1011 mb low is located along the lower Texas coast with a trough located from the upper Texas coast to near 24N98W. A stationary front is analyzed from 30N80W to 29N90W. Isolated showers and thunderstorm are noted along and up to 2 degrees north of the front. This frontal boundary is forecast to gradually become diffuse through the afternoon and evening hours. A surface trough is located in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already discussed in the section above. Winds are expected to increase to near gale across the Gulf of Venezuela tomorrow and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Windward Passage, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba mostly related to the tropical wave. Another tropical wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This wave will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain gusty winds. Broad anticyclonic flow aloft covers the eastern two-thirds of the Caribbean.


...HISPANIOLA...

Upper-level westerly winds are advecting deep level moisture over the island and surrounding waters early this afternoon. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad anticyclonic aloft covers the Atlantic west of about 65W. A well-defined middle/upper level cyclonic circulation is located in the central Atlantic near 27N56W and is nearly stationary. The circulation is about 12 degrees in diameter and is forecast to drift north and gradually weaken. Moving downstream, another middle/upper level cyclonic circulation is centered near 29N29W and is moving slowly west. A trough extends from the circulation southwest to near 12N36W. A stationary front extends through 32N79W to just south of Jacksonville, Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are located north of 29N between 72W and 80W and are moving east. Surface high pressure covers the area north of 18N between 20W and 70W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

CAB

Home