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AXNT20 KNHC 111059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 24N93W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CUBA SW TO 19N84W TO 16N87W. THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N78W TO 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE TROUGH S OF 21N...BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W...EXCEPT GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTS FOG OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN HAITI. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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