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AXNT20 KNHC 161734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W TO 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W-46W


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THEN STATIONARY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...20-25 KT...CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N68W TO HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N33W TO 20N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 49W-61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT THEN WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ DGS

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