Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221819 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CORRECTED FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA FOR THE SPECIAL FEATURE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N65W... JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN THE LOW CENTER MOVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND ACROSS SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. PEOPLE WHO ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SITUATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED WITH SHORT NOTICE. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST. THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO... 0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W. WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET WITHIN 60 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 27N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...TO 10N30W AND 7N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N39W TO 7N50W AND 8N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 9N23W 8N35W 8N40W 8N46W 7N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N102W IN MEXICO. PART OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N102W CENTER COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE U.S.A.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N71W... ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N89W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.


...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM THE CURRENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 2.08 IN ST. THOMAS...1.01 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO... 0.28 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER SCATTERED STRONG THAT WAS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SAME AREA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.


...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA. NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N51W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 26N63W CENTER TO 21N61W...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N21W...TO A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N33W...TO 30N50W...28N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE WIND AND SEA HEIGHTS FORECAST THAT IS RELATED TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

Home