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AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N15W TO 04N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N25W TO 02N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 06W AND 20W AND FROM 01S TO 09S BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE BASIN NEAR MONDAY SUNRISE DOMINATE THE WESTERN BASIN WHILE RIDGING CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC WATERS INTO THE EASTERN GULF. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OBSERVED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND PAC TROPICAL WATERS...RESPECTIVELY...SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND WITHIN 60 NM OFF ITS COAST. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS E TO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N CONTINUE TO REPORT DENSE FOG CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES. THE GOES IFR PRODUCT EXTENDS THIS REGION OF FOG S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH MODERATE PROBABILITIES. A MIX OF FOG AND SMOKE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE REGIONS/WESTERN BASIN. WITHIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE REPORTED. SIMILAR WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A BASE OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF 68W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL HAITI AND SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE HONDURAS COAST AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL HAITI AND SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MON SUNRISE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 30N61W TO 27N71W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 30N76W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 25N57W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N54W THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO 22N60W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MON AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N40W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-SW TO NEAR 24N40W BY MON EVENING. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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