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AXNT20 KNHC 051039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 5N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W ALONG 11N19W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N40W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N43W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N51W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 9N46W 8N54W TO 11N63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N89W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 22N AND W OF 95W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR ORLANDO FLORIDA TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON WITH A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT.


...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 27N70W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N55W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEST PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA OF THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 21N/22N TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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