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AXNT20 KNHC 171037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES NEAR 2N20W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-42W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS TO OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING A WARM FRONT THAT AT 17/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W ALONG 23N86W CLIPPING THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CONTINUING TO 18N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW INTO NW MEXICO IS MOVING TOWARD W TEXAS AND DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE FAR W GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE AREA W OF 95W SCATTERED SHOWERS. WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT N THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF FRI DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE ALONG 16N71W TO 16N81W TO INLAND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SW ATLC.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC AND WILL SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION THAT BECOMES STATIONARY BEFORE ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 17/0900 UTC NEAR 32N71W AND EXTENDS TO 28N76W WHERE IT BECOMES WARM AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 750 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W AND EXTENDS TO 27N25W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N32W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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