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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the SE Caribbean Sea with axis near 62W S of
13N to inland Venezuela, moving west at 20 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave is embedded in an environment of moderate to high
moisture according to CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb.
However, strong deep layer wind shear in the eastern Caribbean
limits the convection to isolated showers S of 13N.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis near
71W S of 15N to inland Venezuela and Colombia, moving west at 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded in an environment of moderate to high
moisture according to CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb.
However, strong deep layer wind shear in the eastern Caribbean
limits the convection to isolated showers S of 15N E of 73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N14W and then continues along 06N21W to 06N29W
where the ITCZ begins and the extends to 07N43W to 09N57W.
Scattered showers are from 04N-10N between 17W and 26W and within
60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 30W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The prevalent feature at the surface continues to be a surface
ridge that is anchored by a 1018 mb high pres center near 28N87W.
This area of high pres provides gentle east to southeasterly flow
N of 23N. Gentle to moderate east to southeasterly flow is S of
23N east of a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche with axis near
95W. Gentle northerlies are ahead of the trough between its axis
and SE Mexico. Scattered showers associated with this area of low
pres are S of 26N W of 92W and within 90 nm off the western
Yucatan Peninsula. The area of low pressure is forecast to move
into eastern Mexico on Saturday with locally heavy rain. Otherwise,
surface ridging will prevail elsewhere the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture across the NW Caribbean and a favorable
diffluent environment aloft support scattered heavy showers and
isolated tstms over western Cuba and southern coastline of the
Island with showers extending offshore about 60 nm. In the SW
Caribbean, the E Pacific monsoon trough extends across Panama to a
1009 mb low over northern Colombia and support scattered showers
and tstms S of 12N. At the upper levels, an elongated low
centered NE of Dominican Republic favors lifting of shallow moist
air across Hispaniola to support scattered heavy showers and tstms
over Haiti and NW Dominican Republic. Otherwise, a tropical wave
is moving across the south-central basin and another across the
southeast Caribbean supporting isolated showers S of 17N E of 72W. Fresh
to strong trades continue in the central basin generated by a
strong gradient between low pres in the S-SW Caribbean and high
pres to the N-NE. Near-gale force winds are expected along the
coast of Colombia and adjacent waters. These winds will continue
the next two days.

...HISPANIOLA...

An elongated low at the upper levels centered NE of Dominican
Republic favors lifting of shallow moist air across Hispaniola to
support scattered heavy showers and tstms over Haiti and NW
Dominican Republic. Global models guidance indicate that shower
activity will continue through Sat before sunrise.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers continue across the Straits of Florida and the
Great Bahama Bank being supported by shallow moisture in the
region and an area of diffluent flow at the upper levels. Model guidance
indicates that shower activity will continue in this region through
Sat before sunrise. Broad high pressure prevails elsewhere across
the basin N of 14N being anchored by a 1036 mb high NW of the
Azores near 41N36W. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a
surface trough from 30N53W to 24N50W to 20N44W with possible
isolated showers within 60 nm either side of its axis. For
tropical waves information, see section above. Little change is
expected across the basin within the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS

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