AXNT20 KNHC 012348
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is moving across the far E Tropical Atlantic
with axis extending from 11N32W to 04N33W, moving W near 20 kt.
The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as seen on the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection
is present along the wave.
A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic
with axis from 14N48W to 05N50W, moving W at around 20 kt. The
wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough as seen on the global
models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is S of 10N between 47W-52W.
A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean with axis from
17N61W to 06N62W, moving west near 20 kt. The wave coincides with
a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded
within a surge of moisture. Scattered moderate convection is along
the axis affecting the Leeward/Windward Islands.
A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis
from 18N73W to 08N73W, moving west near 20 kt. The wave coincides
with a broad 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is
along a surge of moisture. Despite this, no significant convection
is related to the wave at this time.
A tropical wave is moving across Central America and the EPAC wit
axis from 19N83W to 05N83W, moving west near 15 to 20 kt. This wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and
is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms prevail along the wave between 76W-86W.
The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N16W to 08N27W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical
wave near 05N35W to 03N51W. and continues along 4N46W to South
America near 3N51W. Scattered moderate convection is along and
within 100 nm N of the ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A diffluent flow aloft combined with a surface trough that extends
across the northern portion of the basin are enhancing convection
mainly over the NE Gulf N of 26N and E of 90W. To the S, a 1018 mb
surface high is centered near 25N84W. Another surface trough
extends over the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 18N95W.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate westerly flow
across the northern half of the Gulf while a light to gentle
anticyclonic flow prevails S of 26N. Surface ridging will persist
through the weekend while the surface trough will linger across
the northern Gulf.
Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the
section above for details. The combination of the tropical wave
and the monsoon trough is generating scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms across Central America and its adjacent waters S
of 12N between 76W-84W. An upper-level low currently centered N of
Hispaniola is supporting scattered moderate convection across
Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data depict
moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect during the next
24 hours for the waves to continue moving W with convection. The high
pressure over the SW Atlantic combined with lower pressure over
Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds across the the
Central Caribbean through the weekend.
The upper-level low centered over the Turks and Caicos is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the island.
The low will shift W Saturday giving the island southerly flow
aloft. This will produce fresh to locally strong winds along the
north coast each evening/night through the weekend. Scatteredmoderate
convection is also expected through this period.
A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection
across the W Atlantic mainly W of 75W. To the SE, two tropical
waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section
above for details. An upper-level low centered near 21N73W is
supporting scattered moderate convection across the southern
Bahamas, the Puerto Rico Trench, and the northern Caribbean
waters. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the basin
anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 40N34W. Surface ridging will
persist through weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
between the Turks and Caicos and the coast of Hispaniola each
evening through this period also.
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