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AXNT20 KNHC 211119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD AT 21/0000 UTC WAS MOVED TO 32W/33W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD FOR THIS MAP ANALYSIS TIME. IT WAS MOVED BASED ON TPW IMAGERY. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15.5N 21.5W IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N19W 14N20W 11N24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N55W 16N56W 10N56W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM CUBA... ACROSS JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N NORTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER...TO 10N31W AND 8N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N38W TO 8N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 46W.


...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W AND IT CURVES TO 30N76W 28N78W AND 28N80W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WELL AWAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N91W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... TO MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS... KMZG...KBBF...KGVX...KVAF...KEMK...KGHB...KATP...AND KMDJ.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS...IN ALICE AND IN CORPUS CHRISTI...HEAVY RAIN IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG WERE BEING REPORTED IN PERRY FLORIDA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE SKY AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS IMPROVED WITH THE LAST OBSERVATION. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SAINT PETERSBURG FLORIDA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN SARASOTA FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N NORTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE 76W/77W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W AND BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 10N FROM 90W EASTWARD.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM CUBA... ACROSS JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N NORTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO DURING THE LAST FOUR HOURS OR SO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEN THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO JAMAICA...TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 20N TO 27N. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 31N13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO BETWEEN 14W AND 20W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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