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AXNT20 KNHC 021149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 01S12W TO 01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 25W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA SW TO A 1026 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA TO 29N93W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N94W TO 18N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 26N. HOWEVER...SW TO W FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF FROM E PAC WATERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTS FOG N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BOTH STATIONARY FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY DURING EVENING HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL WATERS...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...A MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N79W SW TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...FOG IS BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST N OF 28N AS INDICATED BY HIGH IFR PROBABILITIES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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