AXNT20 KNHC 191723

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.


At 19/1500 UTC, Category 5 Hurricane Maria is located near 16.3N 63.1W or about 200 nm west of Guadeloupe, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. SCattered to numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center in all quadrants and from 12N-20N between 58W-66W. The eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 19/1500 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 200 nm east- northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 36.5N 71.7W, moving north at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 36N-41N between 70W-74W. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and continue offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave came off the west coast of Africa earlier this morning. Its axis extends from 19N18W to 07N18W. The wave is in a region of abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA LPW and TPW imagery. This combined with upper-level diffluent flow supports scattered moderate convection along the southern portion of the wave south of 13N and west of the wave's axis, mostly along the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending from 21N81W to 09N84W, moving west at about 15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the northern wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft support scattered moderate convection south of 15N between 80W-84W.


The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near 17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.



Weak surface ridging prevails over the basin with light and variable winds over most of the area with the exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of the coast of Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are associated with the northern region of a tropical wave moving over EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with dry air subsidence continue to support clear skies. This pattern will continue through the next 24 hours.


Major Hurricane Maria is moving in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands and NE Caribbean waters. The eye of Maria will continue to move over the northeastern Caribbean today, approaching the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see special features for further details. The other area of weather in the basin is related to a tropical wave described in the section above. Light to gentle trades prevail west of 70W, as noted in scatterometer data. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection.


Mostly fair weather prevails across the island. Weather conditions will deteriorate across starting Wednesday morning associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. This activity will increase as the system moves west-northwest very close of the island on Thursday.


Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Jose. The remnants of T.D. Lee are located near 16N45W and are forecast to move northwest during the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm over the northeast quadrant of the low center. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic extending from 32N41W to 26N46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of this trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine