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AXNT20 KNHC 102334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...AS OF 2100 UTC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND N OF 31N. THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION S OF 31N. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N- 13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N37W TO 00N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N95W. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ALSO...MAINLY W OF 80W. TO THE E OF THIS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO 09N82W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE W OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA....CENTRAL AMERICA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS ITS NORTHERN PORTION MERGES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MOVES E ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENTERING THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N81W TO 32N69W. GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 31N. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. TO THE E...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 32N62W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 20N73W TO 32N59W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN DRIFT E WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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