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AXNT20 KNHC 301116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W ALONG 6N15W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N29W TO 4N40W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 33W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 3W-32W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A NARROWER UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE CONUS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE NW GULF COAST OVER MISSISSIPPI TO TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT PATCHES OF FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W AND NW GULF THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING MODESTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 64W-70W. CARIBBEAN RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 70W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 68W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT OVER THE WATERS N OF NW VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER THE THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO 29N77W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N70W 27N72W 22N71W TO OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N- 23N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 59W-70W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS N OF THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N63W TO A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 28N59W TO 25N62W. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 30N ALONG 52W BUT IS STILL PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 56W-60W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW NEAR 28N35W WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 29N31W TO 27N27W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUING ALONG 19N32W TO 15N48W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 26W-32W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N35W TO 20N39W. THE W ATLC PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD N OF 29N TO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH LATE TODAY WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP S INTO THE W ATLC EARLY SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATE THERE BY LATE SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE TROUGH AND FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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