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AXNT20 KNHC 252357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 4N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N22W TO 2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 14W-19W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO 27N95W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-91W MOVING E. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SMOKE AND HAZE IS SEEN HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA MOVING E ENHANCING THE GULF CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 27N60W TO 25N70W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N45W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 27N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 43W-59W. ANOTHER 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N26W MOVING E. A 1021 MB HIGH IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT ALL FRONTS AND LOWS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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