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AXNT20 KNHC 251738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITHIN 75 NM NW OF A 1004 MB LOW LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A WARM FRONT AND THEN TO THE LOW WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SECTIONS BELOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 16N44W TO 6N44W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO S OF 10N WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N53W TO 8N53W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. OTHER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE E OF S AMERICA ALONG 10 N IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N72W TO 11N73W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES THROUGH 10N19W TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 7N30W TO 6N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 34W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NE MEXICO...E TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA IS PROVIDING COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. N TO NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH N TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE BASIN CONVECTION FREE. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE W ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REPLACE THE TROUGH IN THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DIGGING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AT 22N80W TO 19N84W. THE COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AT 19N84W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM NW OF THE FRONTS. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS E CUBA...AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC. TO THE S AND E OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS HELPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N58W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS AS IT APPROACHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WINWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE NW OF THE ISLAND. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N73W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO NEAR 28N64W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N64W TO 31N58W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 130 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE LOW W OF 71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM NE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW CENTER. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 29N30W DRIFTING SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS E TO NEAR 30N60W AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR E CUBA. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS. THE FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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