AXNT20 KNHC 161158

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front entering now the NW Gulf will reach from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico this evening, then move SE of the area Wed. Strong northerly winds are noted behind the front along the coast of Texas. Northerly winds to gale force are possible near Tampico and Veracruz tonight and Wed, and frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the NW waters today. In fact, a buoy located near 20N96W is already reporting gusty winds to gale force. Strong high pressure will follow the front.

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection from the Equator to 04N between 31W and 44W. Similar convection is from 02N-05N between 49W and 51W.



A ridge extends across the region, producing mainly gentle to moderate NE-E winds, except fresh NE winds in the SE Gulf. Stratocumulus clouds are noted across much of the Gulf. Persistent low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre Mountains. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, followed by strong high pressure. Please see Special Features section for more details.


A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the west of Jamaica to the SW Caribbean 13N82W. Scattered showers are noted in association with the frontal boundary S of 16N. Stratocumulus clouds are observed behind the front over the NW Caribbean. Patches of low level moisture with isolated showers are elsewhere E of the front. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, and moderate trade winds east of the frontal boundary. Moistures associated with the remnants of the front will drift westward through Wed, increasing the likelihood of showers over Central America and the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Fri night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters today.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will prevail for the next couple of days. A surface trough passing N of Puerto Rico will produce little convection.


A cold front extends from 31N66W to 28N70W where it becomes stationary then continues across the Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Strong N to NE winds W of the front will gradually diminish today as the front weakens. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening, then become a westward moving trough over the far SE waters Fri. Strong high pres behind the front will induce strong northerly winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas on Thursday.

High pressure of 1040 mb located just W of the Azores near 40N33W dominates the remainder of the ocean to Africa. Scatterometer data indicates a large area of fresh to strong trades north of 15N between 20W-40W. A surface trough associated with an upper-level low extends along 64W/65W N of 25N. Another surface trough is SE of an upper- level low centered near 28N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this system is found N of 29N between 40W-46W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ GR