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000
AXNT20 KNHC 291735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale force winds are expected for the the Gulf of Venezuela
Thursday night. High pressure over the southwest Atlantic
combined with the lower pressure over north Colombia will
produce the minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N27W
to 6N25W moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The 700
mb trough is east of 25W to inland over Africa as seen on the
global models and the wave axis precedes a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated
deep convection.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
17N50W to 7N48W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave is trailing a high amplitude 700 mb trough as seen on the
global models and is along the leading edge of a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the southeast Caribbean extends along 64W/65W
south of 14N to inland over South America moving west 15 to 20
kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of
moisture south of 15N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W along 9N18W to east of the tropical wave
near 7N25W. The ITCZ begins west of the wave near 7N28W and
continues along 8N42W to South America near 5N53W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120
nm either side of the monsoon trough east of 24W to the coast of
west Africa. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are from
3N-7N between 24W-36W and from the ITCZ to 13N between 35W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough covers the east CONUS to the north Gulf
coast supporting a cold front that is inland over the southeast
CONUS. A surface trough extends from the northwest Atlantic
across south Georgia then over Tallahassee, Florida into the
Gulf of Mexico along 29N88W to a weak 1013 mb low near 29N92W
then to the coast of Texas near 28N97W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are north of 24N west of 86W to the coast
from Alabama to Texas with some isolated thunderstorms over the
Florida panhandle west of Tallahassee. A diurnal surface trough
extends from 22N91W to over south Mexico near 18N94W. This
surface trough is dissipating. A surface ridge extends from the
west Atlantic to across central Florida to over the far east
Gulf. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf mostly clear
skies this afternoon. Surface ridge will persist through the
week while the low and surface trough linger across the
northwest of north-central Gulf. The diurnal surface trough over
the Yucatan will return during evening and dissipate during
the early morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low near the Turks and Caicos extends an upper trough
over Hispaniola into the Caribbean to 12N78W generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 17N to
over Hispaniola between 69W-73W. The monsoon trough extends from
Colombia south of Panama generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm along the coast from Panama
to Nicaragua south of 12N west of 81W. This is leaving the
remainder of the Caribbean with mostly clear skies this
afternoon. Tropical wave will move across the south Caribbean
through the remainder of the week. The high pressure over the
southwest Atlantic combined with the lower pressure over
Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds across the
majority of the central Caribbean through the remainder of the
week with minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela
Thursday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

The upper low near the Turks and Caicos is generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over Hispaniola this
afternoon. The upper trough will persist through the remainder
of the week. This will continue to generate showers across the
island with thunderstorms developing during the afternoon/
evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An surface trough over the Gulf of Mexico extends along the
coast of South Carolina to inland over south Georgia generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 29N
between 76W-80W. An upper low is centered just north of the
Turks and Caicos near 22N72W and is generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms south of 25N to over Hispaniola
between 67W-71W and to the west from 26N to the coast of Cuba
between 77W-79W. A shortwave upper trough extends through 32N63W
to 25N60W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 26N-29N between 56W-61W. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 mb
high west-northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending
through 32N55W along 27N68W across central Florida to over the
far east Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist through
the remainder of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW

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