Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 03N21W TO 01N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-02N BETWEEN 25N-39W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WATERS KEEPING THE BASIN WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT. A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE FIRST ONE IS A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N95W. TO THE E...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N84W. A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ITS WESTERN PORTION WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW GULF WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND E GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 62W EXTENDS SW SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA...EXTENDING FROM 20N70W TO 17N74W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS AND S OF PUERTO RICO ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 17N80W TO 13N82W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS DOMINATES. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE NE FLOW IS W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN OVER HISPANIOLA UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.


...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SW ATLANTIC WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA AS A STATIONARY FRONT. WITH THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ENTERING THE SW ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 31N55W TO 21N67W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 19N67W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN 53W-63W. TO THE E
...THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N37W TO 24N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A BROAD 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N30W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 38W WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES NE WHILE WEAKENING ALSO. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED TO NEAR GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY ALONG 30N BETWEEN 65W-75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

Home