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AXNT20 KNHC 031750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 06N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 07N BETWEEN 46W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W N-NE TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 35N90W. WHILE MOSTLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 28N97W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. OTHERWISE... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS INTRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN W-SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS MORE PLENTIFUL HOWEVER WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA... NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL STABILITY ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N59W SW TO 29N70W TO 31N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 30N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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