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AXNT20 KNHC 041041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO 04N15W TO 02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N20W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 11W-17W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 39W-50W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N89W TO OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N89W TO 30N89W. WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE UNDERNEATH THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...NW FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 85W-89W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N75W SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF THIS MORNING. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N85W TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N82W TO 16N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 74W-85W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 73W. ONE EXCEPTION IS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 11N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPANDING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.


...HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND AND ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...THESE BOUNDARIES ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N W OF 73W THIS MORNING. IT IS LIKELY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION ENHANCING THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 40N49W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 31N65W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N48W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W WHICH QUICKLY BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 31N53W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 23N69W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER W OF 65W...MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH REMAIN FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 65W-81W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N46W. FINALLY... ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 40N16W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N15W SW TO 27N25W TO 25N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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