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000
AXNT20 KNHC 180539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE NEAR 29N88W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE GULF. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES NEAR 2N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-37W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AT 18/0300 UTC ENTERING THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUING ALONG 28N87W TO 26N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE W GULF FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS E TEXAS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF A LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 29N88W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO 24N91W FRI MORNING WITH THE LOW NEAR 30N85W AND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N89W FRI EVENING. BOTH FRONT/LOW WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF BY SAT MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW THE LOW WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA E OF 69W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N70W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN AS A WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE SW ATLC.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE SW PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 18/0300 UTC NEAR 32N72W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 650 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS THAT EXTEND THROUGH 32N16W ALONG 25N25W TO 20N36W WITH A SECOND FROM 33N24W TO 22N40W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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