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AXNT20 KNHC 181704
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 05N24W TO 04N35W TO 05N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 22W AND 51W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WARM FRONT CROSSES INTO THE GULF FROM THE TX COAST NEAR 29N95W AND CONTINUES TO 28N91W TO 26N87W. THE FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES FROM 26N87W TO 26N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WARM FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. S WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS E OF 90W. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS W OF 90W. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS A LOW OVER S TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT E OF THE LOW IN THE NE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W TO 85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF THE TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ISLA DE PINOS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES INCLUDING E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND UNDER MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO 31N65W TO 28N70W TO 26N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1015 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N47W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO 19N47W AND THEN SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW TO 31N42W AND THEN OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 48W. A 1036 MB AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED E OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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