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AXNT20 KNHC 022336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 31.8W AT 02/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 512 NM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 28W-32W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 17N45W TO 08N46W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF 10N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N76W TO 10N80W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH RELATIVELY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W- 80W. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF 15N AND W OF 79W AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF 10N.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 06N51W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 10N72W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 22W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINLY W OF 93W. TO THE SE...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N83W. THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THESE 2 FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...MAINLY N OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 26N98W TO 29N89W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC W REACHING THE GULF WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THEREFORE A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N81W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS S OF 15N IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES MOSTLY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-76W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE REPORTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. BOTH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING W SUPPORTING CONVECTION.


...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED NW FLORIDA AND EXTENDING E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC THROUGH 65W. AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF 1019 MB AND 1018 MB SURFACE HIGHS PREVAIL NEAR 27N77W AND 27N66W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N52W AND EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM ITS CENTER TO 25N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE AS WELL AS T.S. FRED ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE FEATURES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTIONS ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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ERA

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