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000
AXNT20 KNHC 141050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA STARTING AT 0000 UTC THIS EVENING UNTIL 1200 UTC MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 04N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N30W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 24N89W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AT 30N94W. NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N90W TO 19N94W. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE WEST OF THIS LINE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND OUT OF THE GULF BASIN. A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN NE FLOW IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS S OF 19N W OF 83W...INCLUDING BELIZE AND NORTHERN HONDURAS. FRESH NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTING SHOWERS E OF 71W OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N64W TO 27N70W TO 24N80W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N60W TO 23N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N45W SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N56W TO THE SE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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