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AXNT20 KNHC 300559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...AND THOSE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 16 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N56W 10N57W 7N58W... MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N64W 10N65W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 83W/84W...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND CENTRAL COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS REACHING THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA ALONG 10N ALSO.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 21N17W TO 14N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 8N30W 5N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N18W 7N28W 5N45W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA OF THE U.S.A. TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N87W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY FROM THE 23N87W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS ALONG 23N90W 21N92W 18N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS FROM 22N SOUTHWARD FROM 93W WESTWARD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N87W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY FROM THE 23N87W CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 20N60W 26N57W.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 32N67W TO 17N69W TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 6 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND DAY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24- HOUR PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE REST OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS...WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 30N77W...29N71W... 26N75W...24N77W...AND 24N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 37N24W TO 32N26W 27N34W AND 24N42W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N40W 26N50W AND 27N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 28N32W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N40W...27N67W AND TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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