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000
AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 03N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N23W AND EXTENDS TO 01N30W TO 01N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 04N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 02W-11W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 16W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 24W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 46W-54W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N96W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. 15-20 KT NW FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO N MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N90W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO E HONDURAS AT 16N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI...AND JAMAICA WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT N OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER E HONDURAS. 15-20 KT N FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 05N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE ISLAND DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT 31N69W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE S BAHAMAS. A VERY LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N43W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND REACH 31N67W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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