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AXNT20 KNHC 281132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 7N25W 5N30W AND 5N43W 5N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 34W... FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 4W AND 10W.


...DISCUSSION...


...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N72W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTH OF 22N85W BY THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 23N97W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...VIA THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N70W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 19N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 19N80W AND IT CONTINUES TO 17N86W...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W... AND THEN CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 27N66W 24N70W 21N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD CHANNEL TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 28N96W 25N93W 24N90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 20N SOUTHWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KGBK... KATP...KIKT...AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

THE VISIBILITIES AT BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...WESLACO...AND MCALLEN...AND AT FALFURRIAS AND KINGSVILLE HAVE BEEN 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.


...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N61W...TO 15N67W...TO 13N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 27N43W 16N45W 9N48W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM SOUTH AMERICA NORTHWARD...REACHING 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE 17N85W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE 27N43W 9N48W RIDGE AND THE 29N59W-TO- 13N70W TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N57W 24N59W 22N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N60W 18N65W 16N70W...AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.


...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HONDURAS TO CUBA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND BELIZE/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 7N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WITH AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL END UP IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE WESTWARD AT THE 30 TO 36 HOUR TIME DURING THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 26N14W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N9W TO 30N19W AND TO 33N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 28N NORTHWARD FROM 30W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N41W...TO 24N35W 15N27W 10N24W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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