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000
AXNT20 KNHC 310518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG 31N71W TO 26N80W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-FORCE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AROUND 1200 UTC TODAY...AND RESUME AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING FOR A PERIOD OF SIX HOURS. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 05N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 00N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W AND 43W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 75W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN THE GULF FROM 26N82W TO 25N91W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 26N98W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE N OF THE FRONTS. E TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS TODAY AND OVER CUBA TONIGHT. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT AND LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E US WILL SHIFT INTO THE W ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO SUPPORTS NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE N COAST OF HONDURAS AS WELL AS OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER CUBA AND BECOME STATIONARY.


...HISPANIOLA...

REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SE INTO THE AREA IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 75W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 31N71W SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N36W IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033 MB CENTERED NEAR 38N32W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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