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AXNT20 KNHC 221756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/1800 UTC IS IN THE THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.3N 92.1W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 96 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING E AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 89W-93W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N22W TO 6N23W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE S OF 13N. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N36W TO 4N37W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE S OF 14N. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N55W TO 7N60W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 55W-59W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES FROM 9N25W TO 7N30W TO 9N35...AND FROM 7N40W TO 5N48W TO 10N56W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.D. NINE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W TO S TEXAS AT 26N97W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS N FLORIDA FROM 30N81W TO 30N88W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE FRONTS. THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SE GULF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 80W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF W N OF 90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. OF NOTE AN EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND SPREAD E OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ALSO EXPECT THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND THEN STALL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W-87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 76W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION WILL BE E OF THE ISLAND HOWEVER...OVER CUBA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 63W-74W. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N55W MOVING N AT 5-10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 23N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 43W-54W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N30W NEARLY STATIONARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N30W TO 23N34W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N31W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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