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AXNT20 KNHC 181712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W SW TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01S35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 18W AND 37W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1013 MB LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WHICH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FL AS A STATIONARY FRONT AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE BIG BEND OF FL TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND THEN ALONG THE TX COAST...FINALLY MOVING INLAND OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF FROM 29N91W TO 26N95W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM 24N97W TO 29N86W. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND FRONT OVER THE NW GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND ATLC HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN US WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE RESIDES OVER COLOMBIA. TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF WINDS UP TO 25 KT WITHIN 130 NM OF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...STABLE CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.


...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 31N75W TO 29N78W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N28W TO 25N40W TO 25N48W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N54W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT TO 31N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF FL WILL MOVE EAST WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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