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000
AXNT20 KNHC 220528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N38W TO 08N39W. THE SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE IS FURTHER W THAN EXPECTED...THEREFORE IT WAS REPOSITIONED. SSMI TPW SHOWS A MOIST AREA S OF 12 N ALONG THE WAVE. METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY INDICATES SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE MAINLY N OF 13N. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 34W-44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N60W TO 11N63W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA EMBEDDED IN THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N82W TO 10N82W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. DESPITE THIS...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTICED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 21N BETWEEN 81W-84W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO A 1010 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N25W TO 09N40W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO 08N51W TO 11N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 20W-29W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN US TO THE CENTRAL GULF. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAINLY S OF 27N. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N77W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF IT. OTHER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF UNDER THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE N GULF ON TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. ASIDE FROM THESE FEATURES...A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 74W-76W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF W CUBA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.


...HISPANIOLA...

A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPED W OF HAITI ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT SOME RAIN TO AFFECT THE SW COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLAND ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL WAVE ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION AND MONSOON/ITCZ SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 32N65W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEAR 26N51W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-35N BETWEEN 45W-55W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 999 MB LOW NEAR 40N70W TO 28N77W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 28N77W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 25N90W. A WARM AND QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW TO 32N53W TO 31N45W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S AND E ALL THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ENHANCING CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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