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AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AT 29/0300 UTC IS NEAR 40.2N 56.6W...OR ABOUT 420 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE IN NEWFOUNDLAND. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 40 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 40N TO 42N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 17N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...NORTHWARD TO 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST OF THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING THE 17N71W-TO-PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA TROPICAL WAVE.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N13W 8N18W 11N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N35W TO 12N49W AND 9N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N98W CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM 19N IN MEXICO TO 28N ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 93W AND 103W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N76W TO 27N81W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SIDE...FROM 90W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST OF THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING THE 17N71W-TO-PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA TROPICAL WAVE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN CURACAO...AND 0.09 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 19N69W TO 12N71W...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND 71W. THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 65W.


...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 17N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...NORTHWARD TO 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N78W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CENTER IS REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 14N78W CARIBBEAN SEA CENTER REACHES THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS OVER BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL RUN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TOWARD HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL START FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXTENDING A RIDGE TOWARD HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 19N69W TO 12N71W...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND 71W. THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N23W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N53W...TO 28N74W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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