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AXNT20 KNHC 221041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N39W TO 09N40W. SSMI TPW SHOWS A MOIST AREA S OF 12 N ALONG THE WAVE. METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY INDICATES SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE MAINLY N OF 13N. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 11N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N61W TO 11N64W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA EMBEDDED IN THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 53W-62W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N83W TO 10N83W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. DESPITE THIS...NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO A 1010 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N24W TO 08N46W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N46W TO 07N52W TO 08N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 33W-39W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN US TO THE CENTRAL GULF. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAINLY S OF 27N. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N75W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF IT. OTHER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF UNDER THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE N GULF ON TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. ASIDE FROM THESE FEATURES...A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SE CUBA FROM 18N- 20N BETWEEN 73W-81W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF W CUBA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.


...HISPANIOLA...

A ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPED W S OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLAND ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL WAVE ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION AND MONSOON/ITCZ SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 31N64W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEAR 24N52W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 46W-53W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 996 MB LOW NEAR 43N67W TO 28N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 28N75W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 27N87W. A WARM AND QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW TO 31N43W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S AND E ALL THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ENHANCING CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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