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AXNT20 KNHC 011145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01N11W TO 01S17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04S27W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO 01N BETWEEN 07W AND 12W AND FROM 08S TO 01N BETWEEN 21W AND 33W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 03N W OF 48W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK BAY AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 95W. OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N96W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 24N94W TO 18N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N96W SW TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES W OF 93W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTLINE VERIFY FOG CONDITIONS N OF 25N W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS INTO THE SW N ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N63W SW TO 28N69W TO 26N75W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB CENTER NEAR 34N24W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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