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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WARNING CRITERIA BY 29/1800 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 18N34W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE S OF 12N IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO 18N53W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 50W- 60W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 19N77W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 76W-84W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N90W TO 20N90W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 88W- 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 89W- 93W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO 18N18W TO 12N20W TO 10N34W TO 10N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N39W TO 11N45W TO 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 19W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 21W-31W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF 90W PRIMARILY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA FOCUSED ON A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N88W IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS NOTED OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY W-NW THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT FOCUSED ON TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N83W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN REMAINING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 67W-80W.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 36N66W TO 29N74W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N74W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 30N78W AND SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 72W- 80W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 59W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N60W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FURTHERMORE...FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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