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000
AXNT20 KNHC 220615 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AMENDED IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE 22/0600 UTC POSITION FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...AND FOR THE FORECAST FOR HISPANIOLA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AT 22/0600 UTC...NEAR 19.4N 92.6W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE IN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING EAST OR 90 DEGREES 5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE MEXICO COAST TO 21N BETWEEN THE MEXICO COAST AND 93W...IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N32W 9N34W 4N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. THIS WAVE WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS BASED ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS AND UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY EASTERLY WAVE DIAGNOSTICS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N54W 11N56W 7N57W... MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO 7N28W 10N33W 7N45W AND 12N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 21W AND 30W.


...DISCUSSION...


...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... TO 28N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W 26N78W...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W... IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 29N80W 28N90W 26N97W...FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MEXICO.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 28N82W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MEXICO.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 32N73W... 28N85W...BEYOND 32N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KATP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT PERRY FLORIDA.


...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND IT CONTINUES HEADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W...ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA.


...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/ SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.


...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N53W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N55W LOW CENTER TO 33N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N51W 23N46W 18N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N38W 23N46W 27N49W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N29W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N NORTHWARD...BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 33N28W LOW CENTER TO 28N30W AND 24N33W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE 1000 MB LOW CENTER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND 31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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